State Of The Nation Update – The New Norms Bite?

My gut is telling me something different is happening. Keep it lean folks, we are heading into choppy water again.

Take the redundancies I’ve seen in the last couple of weeks in FM, environmental and sustainable consulting, outsourced technology, mainstream engineering, internal carbon teams. I’ve seen “walk-aways” by corporates on non-core green related activity, sluggishness in buying “green” and renewable energy progress hampered by team downsizing. There is still a lack of investment and we are now seeing the first signs that the Government cuts are going to bite hard!

Green Bank?

Show me something different and I’ll believe it! Isn’t this the blueprint the Carbon trust but a few more heavyweight names with a sprinkling of Private Equity folks? It’s not going to solve the problem, is it? What happens to the innovation spawning grounds in the latest melee? Same model of return, different underwriter?

Cleantech Investment - What are the new norms?

Yields of less than 7%, ROIs – think more like 5 years now folks!
Venture funding – it’s all about collaboration and circumnavigating Venture land as we know it now.
VCs – for early stage they really mean well past “post revenue” stage – and lots of it!
Fund raising – if you haven’t done it in 6 months, forget it you better do something different.
Equity – start at 60% and if you are lucky negotiate your way back as you hit the milestones.
Typical deal flow scenario - 400 deals reviewed – 4 investments made – those were the figures quoted – but am I wrong in thinking that maybe the view on returns needs to change which might make the ratio different? Maybe the investment community simply haven’t woken up to the new norms yet?

Commercial Property & the CRC

The exodus from inefficient but lovely looking glass and steel buildings is already starting to happen. My prediction is that swathes of office blocks will soon become empty especially where they cannot provide the smart control aspect of carbon management programme roll out.
FTSE or AIM listed company in your property portfolio? What are you doing to help their league table position? Perhaps just taking the rent is now no longer enough – the new norm might be business collaboration?

CRC progress – estimates that 20% of businesses cannot even make registration.
Expecting help from the Environment Agency – hmmmm seems to be a problem when you can’t find the forms on the website even...

Facilities Management Companies – it’s not just about an EPC and some CHP feasibility & engineering consultancy – get your acts together - you are offering a fragmented, disparate service offering – clients want pro-active initiative, joined up thinking and deep traction across third party relationships to resolve the issues they face. I’m hearing reports that FM Companies are not playing ball with energy efficiency partners of clients ... BIG mistake!

For further insight you might like to have a look at my previous post 'Sustainability and The Apollo Effect'.

Skills & Recruitment

Graduate entrants – forget going in to £30K of debt and trekking to Uni unless you aim to come out with a 2:1! 69 graduate applicants for a single job ...employers are being choosy. Boy do we have a problem in the UK with our Course Content – someone’s forgetting the basics & practicals – it’s all theory!

And – this bit is for recruiters only as I know you all read my blog (the intelligent ones will get to this bit – the others will have zoned out by now)! Judging by the amount of recruiters checking out my profile at the mo – everyone in recruitment is piling into this space... wise piece of advice ... if you see a bandwagon, you’ve already missed it. Those of us who have been around for a while, stick together, the flight to quality will be on soon enough.

Prediction – remember the dot.com days? Now imagine that again with only one quarter of the jobs .... I dispute all the figures quoted about green jobs – I think they are overestimated and lots of jobs will mainstream in from related industry or be internal appointments – because of the climate we are in (maybe with the exception of big wind or maybe retraining plumbers!).

You reap what you sow, no matter what business you are in, so expect payback relative to your customer facing investment – and I don’t mean just in cash terms! Everyone is feeling the pressure but I’ve asked myself many times this month - is there a way to be nice and still do business anymore? – or have things got so bad it’s just every man for himself and screw the consequences in the future?

Sustainable business behaviour ... hmmm perhaps a subject for a future blog.

Photo by gluemoon on flickr

Reflection On Climate Change And The Role Of Religion

After a frantic year, knee deep in satisfying the demands for expertise to deliver technology from reverse osmosis to biomass to smart metering, I recently had a well deserved break. I was able to explore the wonders of the Spanish Asturias mountains whilst taking time out with some very dear friends – old and new.

I’m not one to dwell overly on religion, but the Spanish impress me with their wonderful family ethics, strong religious beliefs and amazing church constructions in seemingly impossible mountain passes. One of the members of our group has just taken a fascinating new career path. She will be working in the heart of Rome, spending time advising various churches on how they disseminate climate change education to their various congregations. A big responsibility, and clearly one of huge importance.

I’ve also recently completed an assignment in the climate change lobbying space. Again this gave me real insight into the development of policy and the impact and importance such discussions will have to the forthcoming Copenhagen conference.

En route back to the UK (by boat, I hasten to add), not having had the luxury of TV and internet in our remote mountain accommodation, we saw distressing pictures of the Philippines – further reminders that all is not well on our planet.

I was reminded of the Richard Dimbleby lecture given by HRH Prince of Wales on Climate Change and the interplay between technology, people & religion. If you haven’t seen it, it is worth downloading. The lecture underlines the fact that many influences will be required moving forward – religion being just one of them.

So it was a good pause for reflection on the different roles people are playing in coming to grips with the climate change challenges our population will face over the coming years.

As we all go about our busy lives – where money making and materialism is high on the agenda – I wonder whether we will see a deliberate shift away from the unrelenting demands of consumerism and the trappings of material wealth. Perhaps a reconnection to more simple things in life.

For me, the last week of long lunches, food and wine shared with cherished people, to a background of gently sounding bells around the necks of contentedly munching cows and glorious green mountains, was a welcome reconnection to what life should be like.

So, back to earth with a bump then … and for those of you who know me, I’m not about to sign up and become a monk just yet …

By Debby Lloyd
Managing Director, EcoSearch

Catlin Arctic Survey Homecoming Party - In the midst of all our money-making busyness let’s not forget Climate Change

Last week I attended the Finale Party of the Catlin Arctic Survey. The expedition was a true demonstration of tremendous human endeavour. Our congratulations go to the whole team; they are remarkable people with resilience, heart and team spirit. The results they have collected will be fed through to Copenhagen later this year. But early indications are the polar ice cap is of course thinner than expected (no surprise there really) – less than 2 metres in many places.

Anne, Martin and Pen are still recovering physically and mentally from their expedition – you can actually see and hear the physical toll it has taken on them. They are to be congratulated – sound bites from their speech last night resonated with us and give us a brief check on our daily lives - whilst on the ice the spirituality of their surroundings, the voices, sounds and ice breathing momentum was humbling and comforting.

We are incredibly lucky as a generation. I remember one morning as we watched breakfast TV from bed under a Tog 24 duvet in a centrally heated bedroom drinking tea we saw Martin squeeze his frost bitten toes into icy boots. Anyone who has over-skied on holiday and given themselves blisters will remember how painful it is to squeeze your feet into badly fitted ski hire boots on day three. Now replay that with frost bitten toes, having to sleep out in temperatures of -40 degrees and a 12 hour slogs across fractured ice ahead of you for weeks at a time.

Small acts of human kindness, such as saving your daily ration of chocolate for two days for your colleague who you can see is in deep crisis, mean the world. That chocolate was saved by Martin for Pen (not Ann – in case you were wondering about the female aspect of this trip - Girl Power!).

This project’s media exposure gave 1.6bn the opportunity to see what we are up against. We are a generation that can spread influence of our activities and make things happen if we choose to work together. We will see at Copenhagen if this is possible. I’ve no doubt the work this team have achieved will influence global resolutions on Greenhouse Gas emission regulations.

So we wait with baited breath on the next Catlin project which will no doubt expand the boundaries of climate change science again. Send in your ideas if you have any, we’ll feed them through to the team.

By Debby Lloyd
Managing Director, EcoSearch

You can view a gallary of pictures from the Ice Team's pickup.

Ed Miliband Talks Climate Change

This morning Ed Miliband took part in a web chat about climate change in advance of the launch of the “Road to Copenhagen” initiative today, which begins the run up to the climate negotiations in December.

Mr Miliband sings from the policy hymn sheet while managing to keep the chat human. He tells us he has a Prius and admits that he hasn’t quite finished reading David MacKay’s book ‘Sustainable Energy - without the hot air’. He talked about the UK being the only country to have a specific commitment on aviation: “that aviation growth will be constrained by a commitment to get aviation emissions back to current levels by 2050”, and acknowledge that we are in need of a 2050 Energy Roadmap: “That's part of what our summer white paper will be doing so watch this space. And we must make the transition from fossil fuels.” He also advised readers about the £100bn financing plan announced by Gordon Brown today (go to the DECC website for more info), and referred people to the manifesto for Global Climate Change.

Mr Miliband was even willing to answer an off-topic enquiry about his feeling regarding the passing of Michael Jackson.

You can see everything that was discussed in the web chat, from carbon capture and storage, carbon offsetting nuclear power and energy efficiency here on the Guardian website.

Leadership For A Sustainable Future

This post is from a consultant placed by Debby Lloyd last year. It is our privilege to place “the best of the best” in the market. They then become the heart of influence on some of the most strategic and complex carbon management programmes in global industry today. Their insight into the challenges faced is unique. We are delighted to give them a platform for their personal views – which let’s face it in consulting can rarely be aired or discussed to maintain that fine line of objectivity on a project. So we cherish their input, give them a platform and respect their anonymity … but we know they welcome hearty debate so do comment!

With climate and sustainability scientists becoming increasingly gloomy, do we need to see more leadership and less haggling over policy detail in order to achieve a sustainable future?
The Climate Safety Report, written by the Public Interest Research Centre and released in November 2008, reviewed research published the IPCC’s report of October 2007 including:  

• 2008 was the year of minimum Arctic summer ice volume—70% below the 1979 volume. It is clear that that Arctic sea ice is disappearing much faster than the IPCC’s end of century prediction. Pen Hadow’s Catlin Survey, advised by EcoSearch and now underway, will provide the detailed data to measure permanent Arctic ice thickness. 
  
• As the Arctic melts, increased warming in surrounding regions will be seen up to 1500 km inland into area of continuous permafrost. This permafrost contains twice as much carbon as previously thought—double the amount currently in the atmosphere. The effect of this warming permafrost is not presently incorporated in any global climate models.
  
• Greenland’s 2007 melt was 60% greater than the next highest year of 1998.
  
• While the IPCC predicted sea level rise of 0.5m to 1.4m by 2100, James Hansen, of NASA, in taking long term feedback mechanisms into account, predicts a rise of 0.5m by 2050.
  

While the UK and the EU have certainly demonstrated leadership over the past years in setting policy and drivers to reduce carbon emissions, changes are implemented slowly, very slowly.
DEFRA recently announced that UK greenhouse gas emissions (2% of global emissions) had fallen by 1.7% from 2006 to 2007 and in total by 21.7% from 1990 to 2007 . Laudable indeed, but the UK Climate Change Committee recently set a 2020 target reduction of 34% or 42% if there is a global deal to cut emissions--almost doubling the average annual reductions the UK have achieved over the past 17 years.

In the EU, there seems to be a tendency to attempt to achieve consensus through endless consultation and in some cases, near-perfect standards and targets. Jonathan Porritt has been decried for raising the issue of population growth as the elephant in the room. Plans for a third runway at Heathrow have been approved. Leadership seems to falter.

Okay, so the UK could try harder, but at least the UK and the EU have been trying for the last 17 years. The Americans have a massive challenge, their greenhouse gas emissions (representing around 20% of global emissions) have risen by 16.7% from 1990 to 2007.  

So far, President Obama seems to be supporting two targets for the USA: cutting U.S. greenhouse gas emissions back to 1990 levels by 2020, and an 80 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2050. While the second is in line with the UK’s targets, the first, while ambitious for America (and by the way, matching the annual reductions achieved by the UK over the past 17 years), doesn’t meet the expectations of the rest of a hopeful world placing enormous environmental expectations on the new President. Nonetheless, while the Americans are coming late to the party, watch out, EU. Americans have shown repeatedly throughout history that once they “get” a concept, their focus, drive, pragmatism and energy enables them to leap frog the slow, steady results achieved by others.  

And certainly, Obama has the charisma, persuasiveness and intelligence (in sum, leadership) to cut through the treacle, set ambitious targets and motivate the interests of his country and others to achieve them. Sometimes, it is about simplicity and not being distracted by too much detailed policy.  

And as the Climate Safety Report concludes, we need to convey a hopeful and viable future vision which is coherent and compelling. We need big asks. We must challenge political “realism”. We also must start the tough debates about population control and what sustainable consumption actually looks like. In short, we need leadership to achieve a sustainable future, and we must not be distracted by our short term commercial and political interests—even in tough times.

Image by nick_russill

The Arctic Survey - They're Off!

I was privileged to be present at the send off party for the Catlin Arctic Survey Team. Pen, Anne and Martin leave Heathrow tomorrow for the frozen Arctic Circle. Their coolness in the face of the task ahead of them was something to behold. Pen with his gentle humour is a British explorer to be proud of and an inspirational leader.

Image Copyright Martin Hartley

Anne is the only woman on the 3 person team trekking across the ice. She is an inspiration to many women and she’s in charge of navigation! So, with much guffawing going on in the room by the chaps, she is of course a woman to be respected. No jokes about female voices on sat-nav from here on in!

Martin will be capturing on film the beauty and awe inspiring scenery few of us will ever experience and sharing that with the rest of the world. Although quite how you hold a camera in -30 degrees, and not chop people’s feet off when there is a polar bear eyeing you up for dinner, is a real skill.

Their optimism and light-heartedness probably hid personal anxiety and trepidation. When you look at the hazards they face, hungry polar bears seem to feature heavily, -30 degree temperatures and plain simple danger, you cannot help but feel a little humble that they all seem to take it in their stride.

Their personal “adventure” is the thrust of the news and interviews. They have a Royal Pennant from HRH Prince Charles – the first to be given I believe since Shackleton’s expedition – A measure of the importance this one has. But when you reflect on the undercurrent of what they expect to find the situation is unnerving - no-one is really talking about the implications – from energy security, mass exploration and exploitation not to mention the environmental impact of total melt, wholesale methane release, and mass change on commercial shipping and trading routes etc.

The survey data they collect will not be fully known until later this year, but in your daily lives, spare a thought for them in the freezing conditions as they trek across the frozen wastes in the interests of finding out how our lives will be impacted longer term.

The team behind the characters that have made this expedition possible are passionate, dedicated and many. The “goodwill” of people involved who weren’t able to physically put cash in but have put time and effort has given the expedition momentum. It says a lot about harnessing the collective strength of people who want to make a difference in this world.

If your organisation wishes to sponsor some of the education packs going to schools, do get in touch.

And as a final thought, the last couple of weeks snowy inconvenience looks trifling compared to what they have to face for the next few months. Increasingly disruptive weather patterns look set to become something we will have to endure.

Our thoughts, wishes and luck go with them for a safe journey and homecoming and you can watch their progress at http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com

Debby Lloyd
Managing Director, EcoSearch